Air cargo rates between China and Europe have climbed 75% above their Q4 2025 baseline, reaching approximately $4.80 per kg. Ongoing Middle East airspace restrictions are forcing flights to reroute through Central Asia and Turkey, adding transit time and fuel costs that carriers are passing through directly.

The constraints at Dubai, Doha, and Abu Dhabi have removed up to 20% of global air freight capacity. Fuel costs on some affected routes have risen more than 300%. Rail freight between China and Europe, running the Chongqing to Liège corridor in 18 to 24 days, is gaining share as an alternative but cannot match air freight timelines.

For brands using air freight to restock EU warehouses or ship direct to EU consumers, this is a structural shift rather than a temporary spike. Middle East airspace restrictions show no short-term signs of easing, and carriers have adjusted their rate structures accordingly. Brands that built EU fulfillment models around air-based restocking need to reassess those costs now. The economics have changed materially since Q4 2025.

• China-Europe air cargo rates are up approximately 75% year on year, reaching $4.80/kg as of May–June 2026.
• Middle East hub constraints (Dubai, Doha, Abu Dhabi) have removed up to 20% of global air freight capacity.
• Fuel costs on affected routes are up more than 300%. Carriers are passing this through in rate structures.
• Rail freight (Chongqing to Liège, 18–24 days) is gaining share but does not replace air on time-sensitive restocks.

Building EU-local stock via ocean freight into our Netherlands warehouse removes air cargo exposure entirely and serves the UK and continental Europe with 1 to 3 day road delivery from there.