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Expandly Blog

The Three Biggest Carriers in the World Are Warning About July 1

DHL, FedEx and UPS have gone on record about EU border delay risk. DHL is now recommending a billing model change. Here’s what US brands need to understand.

In This Article

01What the joint carrier letter said
02DDP vs DTP: the billing model question
03Where the Day 1 disruption risk sits
04November PIDs: the next layer of complexity
05Why in-market stock avoids all of this

Key Takeaways

►DHL, FedEx, UPS flagged Day 1 EU border delay risk
►DHL recommends switching from DDP to DTP billing
►DTP shifts duty liability to EU-side logistics partner
►In-market EU stock removes per-order customs processing

The CEOs of DHL, FedEx and UPS wrote jointly to EU finance ministers in late May with a specific warning: the €3 customs duty regime, which went live 1 July 2026, carries a genuine risk of border hold-ups on Day 1 as customs infrastructure adjusts to a fundamentally different volume of dutiable parcels.

3 carrier CEOs — DHL, FedEx and UPS — wrote jointly to EU finance ministers warning of Day 1 border delay risk (Source: CEP Research)

DHL has gone further than warning. The carrier has publicly recommended that US merchants switch from DDP (Delivered Duty Paid) to DTP (Delivered to Party) billing. Under DTP, duty liability transfers to the EU-side logistics partner rather than the origin shipper. That single change removes the brand's direct financial exposure if customs delays cause shipments to sit at the border on Day 1.

For brands that remain on DDP billing, the July 1 transition creates the highest disruption exposure. Customs delays apply, duty liability sits with the US shipper, and the administrative burden follows the money. EU customs infrastructure is processing a fundamentally different volume of dutiable parcels from 1 July 2026, and the system scaling required to handle that volume is not guaranteed to be smooth from day one.

November adds a second layer of complexity. From that month, structured product identifiers (PIDs) become mandatory on all EU shipments. Combined with the €2 handling fee, the per-tariff-heading charge rises to €5. A joint letter from three carrier CEOs to government ministers signals structural concern about the transition, not routine commercial positioning.

  • DHL, FedEx and UPS jointly warned EU finance ministers of Day 1 border delay risk — late May 2026
  • DHL has publicly recommended US merchants switch from DDP to DTP billing ahead of 1 July
  • DTP transfers duty liability to the EU-side partner — reducing the origin shipper's exposure to Day 1 disruption
  • Brands shipping DDP from the US carry the highest exposure if customs processing slows on day one of the new regime

Brands with stock already inside the EU operate entirely outside this exposure. Orders ship domestically, with no cross-border customs processing required per order.

Expandly helps US ecommerce brands expand into Europe — compliance, marketplaces and fulfilment, all handled. We’ve supported 2,000+ brands make the move.

Find out more
  • EU fulfilment from our Netherlands warehouse — fast access to the whole continent
  • Dedicated onboarding, compliance and success team alongside the platform
  • 17 years' experience, 2000+ brands expanded — Andy Hooper, Founder

The bigger picture

Carrier readiness signals a structural shift, not a temporary glitch

When the world's three biggest parcel carriers write a joint letter to government ministers, the message deserves attention. The concern is not about whether customs will eventually process the volume — it will. The concern is about the transition period, the infrastructure readiness on Day 1, and what happens to brands whose shipments are caught in that window. DTP billing is a short-term operational fix. The longer-term answer is removing the per-order customs event entirely by holding stock inside the EU before it's needed.

  • Check with your carrier immediately whether your current billing model is DDP or DTP, and what switching requires operationally
  • Build contingency time into July delivery promises for EU customers — Day 1 delay risk is real, not speculative
  • If you have EU sales volume that supports it, get a landed cost comparison for in-market EU fulfilment against your current cross-border model

Carriers Who Warned EU Finance Ministers

DHL, FedEx and UPS CEOs wrote jointly to warn of Day 1 border delay risk under the new €3 customs duty regime — May 2026

3

Source: CEP Research / Navi Link Global

DHL Recommendation

Switch from DDP to DTP billing: transfers duty liability to EU-side logistics partner, reducing origin shipper exposure to Day 1 disruption

DTP

Source: DHL public recommendation, May 2026

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Inventory held in Expandly's Netherlands warehouse ships from inside the EU, with no cross-border delays or import friction for your customers. Your stock is positioned where your buyers are.

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Expandly helps US ecommerce brands expand into Europe — compliance, marketplaces and fulfilment, all handled.

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