EU air freight volumes fell 14% in July 2026 according to IATA data. The cause is compound. The EU's €3 per-parcel customs levy, in force since 1 July 2026, has materially suppressed cross-border parcel volumes on China to Europe routes, and fewer parcels moving by air means fewer freighter flights on those routes.

This compounds a disruption that was already in place. China to Europe air cargo rates were up 75% above Q4 2025 levels even before the levy, driven by Middle East airspace disruption that constrained global hub capacity at Dubai, Doha and Abu Dhabi. Those hubs account for a significant portion of Asia to Europe air freight connectivity.

The result is an unusual combination. Demand is falling while rates remain elevated. The capacity removed from China to Europe routes as parcel volumes decline has not been replaced by other cargo types at equivalent economics, so available freight capacity is scarce and expensive.

The practical implication for EU ecommerce importers using air freight for Asia-sourced goods is that costs have not moderated with volume. Brands that assumed rate normalisation would follow the levy implementation have not seen it materialise.

Rail freight on the Chongqing to Liege corridor, at an 18 to 24 day transit, is gaining modal share as an alternative for shipments where speed is less critical than cost. For seasonal goods or non-urgent replenishment stock, the economics increasingly favour rail over air on China to Europe lanes.

Replenishing an EU warehouse in bulk and despatching domestically is how Expandly keeps client brands out of the China to Europe rate cycle altogether.