Vessel congestion and delays have taken around 2.3 million TEU of ocean capacity out of the market at exactly the point in the year when brands are moving fourth-quarter stock. Container spot rates on US trade lanes have jumped, and US drayage rates are climbing on the same pressures.

Three pressures are pointing the same way. Late peak-season demand arrived after many carriers had already set their capacity. Congestion and delays then held ships in port instead of back on the water. Drayage, the short road move between port and warehouse, is tightening because the same converging trends squeeze truck and chassis availability.

The container rate is the part you can model. What you cannot model easily is a two-week slip on an arrival that was already booked against a promotional date. Stock that lands in December for a November campaign is stock you discount. Air freight rescue moves at peak rates then eat the margin the ocean booking was there to protect.

Brands shipping direct to European customers from a US warehouse feel this twice. The inbound move from your supplier into the US is exposed to the capacity squeeze, and every outbound parcel to Europe then carries cross-border cost on top of it. Hold stock inside Europe and you absorb the inbound risk once, then ship domestically to the customer.

The useful response here is unglamorous. Pull the cut-off you give your supplier earlier than the sailing schedule suggests, split peak volume across more than one sailing rather than consolidating into a single booking, and settle in advance which products you would pay to move by air and which you would allow to slip.

• Move your supplier cut-off earlier than the schedule implies, so a delay eats slack rather than your campaign date.
• Split peak volume across multiple sailings instead of one consolidated booking.
• Rank your products by margin before peak, so an air freight decision becomes a lookup rather than an argument.
• Confirm drayage and delivery appointments at the destination warehouse, not only the ocean leg.

Expandly holds client stock in its Netherlands warehouse and its UK site, so the inbound capacity risk is absorbed once rather than repriced on every order.