UK goods exports rose 3.5 per cent by volume in July 2026, and almost all of that came from one place. EU-bound sales jumped 7.2 per cent while non-EU export volumes were flat. Vehicles, chemicals, fuels and manufactured goods led the increase, and over the latest three months goods exports were up 4.8 per cent in value.

Split the three-month value figure and the picture sharpens further. Exports to the EU were up 2.8 per cent in value over that period against 6.9 per cent to the rest of the world, so the July volume jump is a single strong month rather than a sustained trend. Imports rose 2.1 per cent, with non-EU imports up 4.2 per cent on Chinese cars and US aircraft.

The British Chambers of Commerce called the EU figure encouraging and used it to press for action to lower the cost of UK to EU trade. That framing is the interesting part. Demand across the Channel is not the constraint. Cost and process are, and they have been since the trading relationship changed.

For a US brand the read-across is direct. European appetite for goods from outside the bloc is real and measurable, and the brands struggling in Europe are rarely struggling on demand. They are struggling on the cost of getting each order across a customs border, the VAT treatment when it arrives, and the returns journey when it goes back. A UK exporter feels those three things every day. A US exporter feels them the same way, with a longer distance attached.

One month is one month. The direction of the demand signal is still worth acting on.

• Read the July volume jump alongside the softer three-month value figure rather than on its own.
• Separate demand questions from cost-of-trade questions when reviewing European performance.
• Price the customs, VAT and returns legs of a European order explicitly rather than averaging them.
• Compare selling into Europe from outside against holding stock inside the bloc.

Expandly settles the tax and compliance position first, which is what turns European demand into European revenue.