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Expandly Blog

WTO Cuts Its 2026 World Trade Growth Forecast to 1.9%

Global merchandise trade is forecast to grow at well under half the rate it managed in 2025, and the reasons are mostly political.

In This Article

01 What the forecast actually says
02 The headwinds behind the cut
03 Why it is not your demand
04 Where the real exposure sits
05 Four numbers to model

Key Takeaways

► 2026 trade growth forecast cut to 1.9%
► Tariffs, tensions and shipping costs drive the cut
► Global merchandise trade is not European consumer demand
► In-market stock cuts exposure to international freight costs

Global merchandise trade will grow 1.9 per cent in 2026 on the World Trade Organization's latest forecast, against actual growth of 4.6 per cent in 2025. A pessimistic scenario of 1.4 per cent is flagged if energy prices run high. The WTO's own Goods Trade Barometer sits at 102.0, up from 101.7 in June 2026, so current activity is still above recent trend even as the full-year view comes down.

1.9% WTO forecast for 2026 global merchandise trade growth, against 4.6% actual growth in 2025. Source: World Trade Organization via Global Trade Magazine, 10 September 2026.

The headwinds named are US tariff actions against major trading partners, tensions around the Strait of Hormuz, and elevated shipping and rerouting costs. Demand for AI-driven semiconductors and electronics is offsetting part of the drag. None of that is within any single brand's control, which is precisely why the useful response is structural rather than tactical.

Here is the part worth holding onto. A global merchandise figure blends everything: commodities, industrial inputs, capital goods, consumer products. European consumer ecommerce is a much smaller and faster-moving slice of that total, and it is not forecast to slow to 1.9 per cent. Treating a global trade forecast as a read on your European consumer demand mixes two different populations.

What the forecast does say clearly is that the cost of moving goods internationally is under upward pressure and likely to stay there. For a brand serving European customers by shipping each order from a home-market warehouse, every one of those orders is an international movement exposed to exactly the pressures the WTO is describing. For a brand holding stock inside Europe, most orders are domestic and the exposure sits on a smaller number of bulk movements instead.

The forecast is a reason to change how goods reach European customers, not a reason to postpone reaching them.

  • Separate your European consumer demand outlook from global merchandise trade figures; they measure different things.
  • Count how many of your European orders are international movements today.
  • Model what happens to landed cost if shipping rates stay elevated through 2027.
  • Watch the Goods Trade Barometer for current activity rather than relying on the annual forecast alone.

Expandly moves brands from shipping every European order internationally to shipping most of them domestically from inside the region.

Expandly helps US ecommerce brands expand into Europe — compliance, marketplaces and fulfilment, all handled. We’ve supported 2,000+ brands make the move.

Find out more
  • VAT registration handled across UK, Germany, Netherlands and all EU markets
  • Product label review and Responsible Person service for EU and UK market entry
  • EU fulfilment from our Netherlands warehouse — fast access to the whole continent
  • IOSS registration and management for DTC shipments under €150
  • Real-time inventory and order management across all your active channels
  • Dedicated onboarding, compliance and success team alongside the platform
  • 17 years' experience, 2000+ brands expanded — Andy Hooper, Founder

The bigger picture

Slower Global Trade Growth European Demand Still Moving

A 2026 forecast of 1.9 per cent growth in global merchandise trade describes the cost and friction of moving goods internationally, not the appetite of European consumers to buy. For a US brand that distinction decides strategy, because selling into Europe means VAT registration, product compliance and producer responsibility obligations in each market before stock can sit there and orders can be filled locally. Expandly's onboarding is compliance-first, and the first step for a brand at this stage is a market selection and compliance review that establishes which European markets are worth entering and what each one requires. Getting the structure right while freight costs are rising is cheaper than retrofitting it after they have.

  • The WTO cites US tariff actions, Strait of Hormuz tensions and elevated shipping and rerouting costs as the drag on 2026 trade growth
  • Expandly holds client stock in our Netherlands warehouse so European orders ship domestically rather than as individual international movements
  • A brand fulfilling every European order from its home market carries rising international freight costs on every single order

European Ecommerce Growth

European ecommerce is projected to compound at 7.7 per cent a year through 2029 and to pass the USD 1 trillion mark by 2028. Consumer demand in the region is on a different trajectory to global merchandise trade.

7.7% CAGR

European ecommerce compound annual growth rate, 2026 to 2029. ECDB E-Commerce in Europe 2026 Report.

Goods Trade Barometer

The WTO's Goods Trade Barometer reads 102.0, up from 101.7 in June 2026, which still indicates trade growth above recent historical trend. Current activity and the full-year forecast are telling different stories.

102.0

Latest WTO Goods Trade Barometer reading, global merchandise trade. WTO via Global Trade Magazine, 10 September 2026.

One Team, Every Step

Compliance, VAT, marketplace listings, EU warehousing, on-time despatch. Expandly manages the full chain so you don't need to coordinate multiple suppliers across different time zones.

2,000+

brands expanded with Expandly

If this sounds like your world,
let's talk.

Expandly helps US ecommerce brands expand into Europe — compliance, marketplaces and fulfilment, all handled.

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